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[1]林吟,陳庚,鐘曉容.終末期腎病透析患者生存時(shí)間的影響因素分析及預(yù)測模型構(gòu)建[J].福建醫(yī)藥雜志,2024,46(03):140-144.[doi:10.20148/j.fmj.2024.03.052]
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終末期腎病透析患者生存時(shí)間的影響因素分析及預(yù)測模型構(gòu)建()
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《福建醫(yī)藥雜志》[ISSN:1002-2600/CN:35-1071/R]

卷:
46
期數(shù):
2024年03期
頁碼:
140-144
欄目:
護(hù)理園地
出版日期:
2024-06-15

文章信息/Info

文章編號:
1002-2600(2024)03-0140-05
作者:
林吟陳庚鐘曉容
福建省福州市第一總醫(yī)院,福州 350009
關(guān)鍵詞:
血液指標(biāo) 透析 慢性腎臟病 預(yù)后模型 終末期腎臟病
分類號:
R692.5
DOI:
10.20148/j.fmj.2024.03.052
文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼:
B
摘要:
目的 探討終末期腎病透析患者生存時(shí)間的影響因素及預(yù)測模型的構(gòu)建。方法 采用單因素Cox回歸分析影響終末期腎病透析患者生存時(shí)間的基本情況和血液指標(biāo)。構(gòu)建多因素Cox回歸模型、最小絕對收縮和選擇算子(Lasso)回歸模型和隨機(jī)生存森林(RSF)模型。采用赤池信息準(zhǔn)則(AIC)最小值法、Lambda最小值法、變量重要性(VIMP)法和最小深度法篩選透析患者可能的影響因素。通過計(jì)算模型的一致性指數(shù)(C-index)和ROC曲線下面積(AUC),比較模型間擬合度和預(yù)測效果。結(jié)果 年齡(HR=2.271)、舒張壓(HR=0.869)、患有糖尿病(HR=1.660)是終末期腎病透析患者生存時(shí)間的影響因素(P<0.05)。Cox回歸模型的預(yù)測性能可能優(yōu)于Lasso回歸模型和RSF模型(C-Index:0.717 vs.0.705 vs.0.678; AUC:0.71 vs.0.68 vs.0.71)。結(jié)論 年齡超過60歲、合并有糖尿病會縮短透析患者的生存時(shí)間,舒張壓較高可延長患者的生存時(shí)間。

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備注/Memo

備注/Memo:
基金項(xiàng)目:福州市科技計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2021-S-175)
通信作者:陳 庚,Email:[email protected]
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-06-15