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[1]黃慧琴 鄒 燕 李 勇 郭舜民 余晶晶.福州地區(qū)慢性阻塞性肺病急性發(fā)作與氣象因素的相關(guān)性分析及其預(yù)警模型的初步探討[J].福建醫(yī)藥雜志,2020,42(01):23-26.
　HUANG Huiqin,ZOU Yan,LI Yong,et al.Correlation analysis between the occurrence of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and meteorological factors in Fuzhou city and preliminary study on its forewarning model[J].FUJIAN MEDICAL JOURNAL,2020,42(01):23-26.
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福州地區(qū)慢性阻塞性肺病急性發(fā)作與氣象因素的相關(guān)性分析及其預(yù)警模型的初步探討()
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《福建醫(yī)藥雜志》[ISSN:1002-2600/CN:35-1071/R]

卷:
42
期數(shù):
2020年01期
頁碼:
23-26
欄目:
臨床研究
出版日期:
2020-03-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Correlation analysis between the occurrence of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and meteorological factors in Fuzhou city and preliminary study on its forewarning model
文章編號(hào):
1002-2600(2020)01-0023-04
作者:
黃慧琴 鄒 燕1 李 勇2 郭舜民 余晶晶
福建省醫(yī)學(xué)科學(xué)研究院 福建省醫(yī)學(xué)測(cè)試重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(福州 350001)
Author(s):
HUANG Huiqin; ZOU Yan; LI Yong; GUO Shunmin; YV Jingjing.
Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Medical Analysis,Fujian Academy of Medical Sciences, Fuzhou, Fujian 350001,China
關(guān)鍵詞:
慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD);  氣象因素;  預(yù)警模型
Keywords:
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD);  meteorological factors;  forewarning model
分類號(hào):
R563
文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼:
B
摘要:
目的 分析福州市慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)急性發(fā)作與同期氣象因素的相關(guān)性,建立福州地區(qū)COPD急性發(fā)作氣象預(yù)警模型。方法 收集福建醫(yī)科大學(xué)附屬協(xié)和醫(yī)院住院的COPD急性發(fā)作病例,選取同期月平均氣溫、月平均氣溫波動(dòng)指數(shù)、月平均最低氣溫、月平均最低氣溫波動(dòng)指數(shù)、月平均氣壓、月平均降雨量、月平均相對(duì)濕度這7個(gè)氣象指標(biāo)為評(píng)估因子,進(jìn)行多元逐步回歸分析,建立基于不同季節(jié)的精確預(yù)警模型。結(jié)果 春季COPD發(fā)病人數(shù)與月平均最低氣溫、月平均氣溫波動(dòng)指數(shù)呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,與月平均相對(duì)濕度、月平均氣溫呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系(調(diào)整R2=0.54,F=18.29,P<0.05); 夏季發(fā)病人數(shù)與月平均相對(duì)濕度、月平均氣溫、月平均最低氣溫波動(dòng)指數(shù)呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系(調(diào)整R2=0.30,F=9.47,P<0.05); 秋季發(fā)病人數(shù)與月平均氣壓呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,與月平均相對(duì)濕度呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系(調(diào)整R2=0.45,F=24.95,P<0.05); 冬季發(fā)病人數(shù)與月平均相對(duì)濕度、月平均氣壓呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系(調(diào)整R2=0.20,F=8.57,P<0.05)。結(jié)論 氣象因素與COPD急性發(fā)作密切相關(guān),可通過多元線性回歸方程進(jìn)行模擬預(yù)測(cè)。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the correlation between the occurrence of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)and the corresponding-period meteorological factors in Fuzhou from 1991 to 2010, so as to establish a meteorological forewarning model for acute exacerbation of COPD in the area of Fuzhou.Methods The numbers of patients with acute exacerbation of COPD treated in the Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University from 1991 to 2010 were collected by month.The seven meteorological indicators during the same periods including monthly mean temperature, monthly mean temperature fluctuation index, monthly mean minimum temperature, monthly mean minimum temperature fluctuation index, monthly mean atmospheric pressure, monthly mean rainfall and monthly mean relative humidity were collected as evaluation factors.Then multiple stepwise regression analysis was carried out in order to establish an accurate forewarning model based on different seasons.Results The number of patients with acute exacerbation of COPD in spring was positively correlated with monthly mean minimum temperature and monthly mean temperature fluctuation index, but negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity and monthly mean temperature(adjusted R-square=0.54, F=18.29, P<0.05).In summer it was negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity, monthly mean temperature and monthly mean minimum temperature fluctuation index(adjusted R-square=0.30, F=9.47, P<0.05).In autumn it was positively correlated with monthly mean atmospheric pressure, but negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity(adjusted R-square=0.45, F=24.95, P<0.05).In winter it was negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity, monthly mean atmospheric pressure(adjusted R-square=0.20, F=8.57, P<0.05).Conclusion Meteorological factors are closely related to the occurrence of acute exacerbation of COPD, and can be predicted by multiple linear regression equations.

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備注/Memo

備注/Memo:
基金項(xiàng)目:福建省科技計(jì)劃公益類科研院所專項(xiàng)(2016R1029-4)1 福建省氣候中心; 2福建醫(yī)科大學(xué)附屬協(xié)和醫(yī)院呼吸內(nèi)科
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-03-30